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Back to normal? Investors bet post-COVID world may not look so different

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Back to normal? Investors bet post-COVID world may not look so different by Kenyans247(1): Mon 07, December, 2020 09:23am
LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -The global economy is suffering its worst slowdown since the Great Depression, millions have lost jobs and industries have been brought to their knees.But some of the world’s leading money managers reckon economies may not look so different from their old selves after the pandemic passes - many are betting on a speedy recovery and little ‘scarring’, with hardest-hit sectors rebounding fastest.

Fuelling the optimism are the vaccine breakthroughs, but underlying it is the view that thanks to vast government support and central bank stimulus, consumers and businesses will emerge less damaged than in past recessions.

“When you look at prior periods like this where pandemics have impacted regions of the globe, there tends to be a greater snapback or return to normal than some people may suggest,” Dan Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of PIMCO, told the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit this week.

Ivascyn did not think there would be “radical change post-pandemic”, though employment levels will take time to recover.

Government job support schemes and a spike in savings rates as people stayed indoors mean consumers have more cash to splurge on services when economies fully reopen.

Peter Fitzgerald, CIO for multi-asset and macro at Aviva Investors, pointed out that household income has actually risen during this recession. While demand for services collapsed, spending on goods is also up 10% in 2020, he said.

He was wagering on a further rebound in the banking, leisure and tourism stocks in Europe that were whacked the hardest in the COVID-19 sell-off.

“Our view is that as you lift restrictions, the world will revert back to something more similar to what we had pre-coronavirus rather than some sort of new normal everybody likes to talk about,” he said, noting that when the UK briefly lifted travel restrictions almost two million people booked flights to Spain for August.
https://www.reuters.com/article/investment-summit-health-coronavirus/back-to-normal-investors-bet-post-covid-world-may-not-look-so-different-idUSKBN28E2NW

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